Kelvin's Home Page

Welcome. Okay, its not a fancy page yet, but its a start!




I studied economics at Auckland University from 1984-1990. Came to the UK in 1990, and worked at what used to be called Wye College (now Imperial) teaching quantitative materials to agricultural economists. Did my PhD (Econometrics in the Agricultural Sector) at Wye College, University of London, between 1993 and 1996, and stayed until 2005 (through 5 Imperial years). I started in Reading at the beginning of 2006.

My field is applied econometrics. The agricultural focus came as result of working at Wye.  The agricultural sector dominates the publications, but there is a fair bit of non-Ag stuff as well.  Historically, my work has been more classical and time-series focused. However, more recently I have been working on Bayesian approaches, particularly of a choice modelling nature, including models of risk and uncertainty. 



Some Recent Work

Balcombe, K. Fraser I., and McSorely E. Visual Attention and Attribute Attendance in Multi-Attribute Choice Experiments. JAE Revise June 19th.pdf .


Balcombe K. and Fraser I. Parametric Preference Functionals Under Risk in the Gain Domain: A Bayesian Analysis CPT RDU Paper 2nd December 2013.pdf  


Balcombe K. and Fraser I. Are Transient Explosive Roots the Generic Signature of Bubbles in Markov Switching Models?  New Bubbles Paper Nov 2014.pdf (with tables and graphs in Graphs.pdf . Supplementary materials can be found here. Bubbles Supplementary Materials.xlsx


Refereed Journal Articles by Type


For access to a subset of the publications below visit Kelvin Balcombe at IDEAS






  1. Balcombe K. and Fraser I. Parametric Preference Functionals under Risk in the Gain Domain: A Bayesian Analysis. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (2015) vol. 50(2), pages 161-187.
  2. Rigby D, Burton M, Balcombe K., Bateman I. and Mulatu A. Contract Cheating & the Market in Essays.  Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation (2015) Volume 111, 23–37
  3. Breeze, T. Potts, S. Bailey A. and Balcombe K. A Stated Preference Valuation of UK Pollination Services. Ecological Economics (2015) Volume 111, 76-85
  4. Balcombe K. and Fraser I. Visual Attention and Attribute Attendance in Multi-Attribute Choice Experiments. Journal of Applied Econometrics (2015) 30 (3). pp. 447-467.
  5. Salois M. and Balcombe K. A Generalised Bayesian Instrumental Variable Approach under Student t-distributed Errors with Application. Manchester School (2015) Volume 83, Issue 5, 499-522.
  6. Areal, F., Tiffin, R. and Balcombe, K. Provision of environmental output within a multi-output distance function approach. Ecological Economics (2012) Volume 78 47-54
  7. Balcombe K., Burton M and Rigby D. Skew and attribute non-attendance within the Bayesian mixed logit model. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2011) 62 (3). 446-461
  8. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser & Abhijit Sharma. Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series. Applied Economics (2011) vol. 43(26) 3805-3818
  9. Balcombe K. and I Fraser. Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation with ‘Dont Know’ Responses and Misreporting.  Journal of Applied Econometrics (2009) 24, 1137-1152
  10. Balcombe K. Fraser I. and Chalak A. Model Selection in the Bayesian Mixed Logit. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2009) 57, 2, 226-237
  11. Sharma A, Balcombe K. and Fraser I.  Non-renewable resource prices: Structural breaks and long term trends. Economic Bulletin (2009) 29(2), 821-835.
  12. Rigby D. Balcombe K. Burton, M.  Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods. Environmental and Resource Economics (2009) 3, 279-295
  13. Latruffe, L. Davidova. S., Balcombe. K. Productivity Change in Polish Agriculture: An application of a bootstrap procedure to Mamlquist indices. Journal of Post-Communist Economies (2008) 20 (4) 449-460
  14. Latruffe L. Davidova S. and Balcombe K. The use of bootstrapped Malmquist indices to reassess productivity change findings: an application to a sample of Polish farms. Applied Economics (2008) Volume 40, Issue 16, 2055-2061
  15. Fraser I., Balcombe K., Latruffe, L.  Rahman M and Smith L.  An Application of the DEA Double Bootstrap to Examine Sources of Efficiency in Bangladesh Rice Farming.  Applied Economics (2008) 15, 1919-1925
  16. Fraser, I., Balcombe K., Chalak, A. and Bailey A.  Modifying Willingness to Pay Estimates where Respondents Mis-report their Preferences. Applied Economics Letters (2008) 15(5), 327-330
  17. Latruffe, L. Davidova. S., Balcombe K. Application of a double bootstrap to investigation of determinants of technical efficiency of farms in Central Europe. Journal of Productivity Analysis (2008) vol. 29(2) 183-191
  18. Latruffe L., Davidova S. and Balcombe K. The use of bootstrapped Malmquist indices to reassess productivity change findings: an application to a sample of Polish farms. Applied Economics (2008) 40 (16) 2055– 2061
  19. Balcombe K., Bailey, A., Chalak, A. and Fraser, I. Bayesian Estimation of Willingness to Pay where Respondents Mis-Report their Preferences. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2007) 69, 3, 413-437
  20. Balcombe K. Bayesian Estimation of Cointegrating Thresholds in the Term Structure of Interest Rates. Empirical Economics (2006), 31, 2, 277-289
  21. Fraser, I., Balcombe K, P Kim. Estimating Technical Efficiency: Does the Choice of Estimation Methodology Matter?  Applied Economics (2006) 38, 19, 2221-2236
  22. Bezemer, D, Balcombe K., Davis J, and Fraser, I Livelihoods and Farm Efficiency in Rural Georgia. Applied Economics (2005) 37: 1737-1745
  23. Balcombe K. Model Selection Using Genetic Algorithms and Information Criteria. Computational Economics (2005) 25: 207-228
  24. Balcombe K. Bailey A. and I. Fraser. Measuring the impact of R&D on Productivity from an Econometric Time Series Perspective. Journal of Productivity Analysis (2005) 24, 1 49-72
  25. Latruffe L, Balcombe K, Davidova S, and K Zawalinska.  Determinants of Technical Efficiency of crop and livestock farms in Poland.  Applied Economics (2004) 36 (12), 1255-1263
  26. Balcombe K. Retesting Symmetry and Homogeneity in a Cointegrated Demand System with Bootstrapping: the Case of Meat Demand in Greece. Empirical Economics (2004) 29, 2, 451-462
  27. Balcombe K. and C McDermott. Testing for Asymmetric Price Stickiness using Business Opinion Data: a Bootstrap Approach. Applied Economics Letters (2003) 10, 15, 955-958
  28. Bailey A, Balcombe K and J Morrison. A Comparison of Proxy Variable and Stochastic Latent Variable Approaches to the Measurement of the Biased Technological Change in South African Agriculture. Economics of Innovation and New Technology (2003) 12, 4, 315-324
  29. Balcombe K and R Tiffin. Bootstrap testing of the expectations hypothesis with the term structure of interest rates. Applied Economics Letters (2002) 9,563-566
  30. Balcombe K and R Tiffin. Fully Modified Estimation with Cross Equation Restrictions.  Economics Letters (2002) 74, 2, 257-263
  31. E Oliver, A Prakash, and K Balcombe. Does Building Roads Really Create Traffic: Some New Evidence. Applied Economics (2001) 33,  1579-1585
  32. Balcombe K. Seasonal unit root tests in the presence of structural change. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (1999) 61, 4, 569-582
  33. Balcombe K. Further evidence concerning the relationship between high and variable inflation: a more general approach. Applied Economics Letters (1999) 6, 59-61
  34. Balcombe K. The Carlson-Parkin method applied to NZ price expectations using QSBO data. Economics Letters (1996) (51) 51-57



Agricultural/Food Economics

  1. Balcombe K., Fraser I, Lowe B. and Souza Monteiro D. Information Customization and Food ChoiceAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics. (Online First, 2015).
  2. Fraser I, Bitzois M., Haddock J. and Balcombe K. Using Attribute Importance Rankings within Discrete Choice Experiments: An Application to Valuing Bread Attributes. Journal of Agricultural Economics (2014) Volume: 65 Issue: 2, 446-462
  3. Kehlbacher, A., Balcombe, K. and Bennett, R. Stated attribute non-attendance in successive choice experiments. Journal of Agricultural Economics (2013) Issue 3, 693-706
  4. Kehlbacher, A., Bennett, R. and Balcombe, K. Measuring the consumer benefits of improving farm animal welfare to inform welfare labelling. Food Policy (2012) 37 Issue: 6 Pages: 627-633
  5. Areal F. Tiffin R, and Balcombe K. Integrating spatial dependence into Stochastic Frontier Analysis. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics Volume (2012) 56 Issue: 4, 521-541
  6. Bennett, R. and Balcombe, K. Farmers’ willingness to pay for a tuberculosis cattle vaccine. Journal of Agricultural Economics (2012) 63 (2) 408-424
  7. Richard Tiffin & Kelvin Balcombe. The determinants of technology adoption by UK farmers using Bayesian model averaging: the cases of organic production and computer usage. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (2011) vol. 55(4) 579-598
  8. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser. A general treatment of ‘don't know’ responses from choice experiments. European Review of Agricultural Economics (2011) vol. 38(2) 171-191
  9. Fraser I, Balcombe K. and Di Falco S. A Choice Experiment Examining the Relationship between Food Labels and Price. Food Policy (2010), vol. 35(3) 211-220
  10. Balcombe K. and G Rapsomanikis, An Analysis of the Impact of R&D on Productivity using Bayesian Model Averaging with a Reversible Jump Algorithm. American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2010) 92(4): 1–14
  11. Ali Chalak, Kelvin Balcombe, Alastair Bailey and Iain Fraser. Pesticides, Preference Heterogeneity and Environmental Taxes. Journal of Agricultural Economics (2008) Vol. 59, No. 3, 537–554
  12. Balcombe K. and Rapsomanikis G. Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Non‐Linear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar‐Ethanol‐Oil Nexus in Brazil. American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2008) 90 (2) 658-668
  13. Balcombe K., Bailey A., and Brooks J. Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize and Soya Prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2007) 89 (2) 308-323
  14. Balcombe K., Doucouliagos H. and Fraser I.  Input usage, output mix and industry deregulation: an analysis of the Australian dairy manufacturing industry. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (2007) 51, 137-156
  15. Gocht A. and Balcombe K. Ranking Efficiency Units in DEA Bootstrapping, Agricultural Economics (2006) 35, 2, 223-229
  16. Rahman, M. M, Kelvin Balcombe and Laurence Smith. Application of the Frontier Approaches to Model the Efficiency of Rice Producers in Bangladesh. Journal of Agriculture and Food Economics (2006), Vol. 1, No. 2
  17. Rahman, M., Balcombe K. and Smith L. A Non-parametric Approach to Model the Technical, Allocative, Cost and Scale Efficiency of Rice Producers in Bangladesh.  The Journal of Agricultural and Food Economics (2006) 1, 1, 27-48
  18. Tiffin R and Balcombe K. Testing Symmetry and Homogeneity in the AIDS, using Fully Modified Estimation and the Bootstrap. Journal of Agricultural Economics (2005) 56, 2, 253-272
  19. Latruffe L, K Balcombe, S Davidova, K Zawalinska. Technical and Scale efficiency of Crop and Livestock Farms in Poland. Does Specialisation Matter? Agricultural Economics (2005) 32, 3, 281-296
  20. Bailey A, Xavier Irz and K Balcombe. An Application of the Stochastic Latent Variable Approach to the Correction of Sector level TFP Calculations in the Face of Biased Technological Change. Agricultural Economics (2004) 31, 3 285-295.
  21. Bailey A, Balcombe K, Jenkins L and C. Thirtle,  M.E. Estimation of Input and Output Biases of Technical Change in UK Agriculture, 1953 to 2000, Journal of  Agricultural Economics (2004) 2, 55, 385-400
  22. Balcombe K, G. Rapsomanikis, G. and S. Klonaris,. An Entropy approach to the estimation of the Almost Ideal Demand System. Journal of Agricultural Economics (2003) 3, (54) 447-446
  23. J Morrison, Balcombe K, Bailey A, Klonaris S and G Rapsomanikis.  Examining changes in tastes in food consumption in Greece, using an unobserved component approach. Agricultural Economics (2003) 28/2 139-150
  24. Balcombe K, A Bailey and J Morrison. Stochastic Biases in Disembodied Technical Change within the US: a bootstrapping approach. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics (2002) 1, March 50, 67-83
  25. Balcombe K and A Prakash.  Estimating the Long-Run Supply and Demand for Agricultural Labour in the UK. European Review of Agricultural Economics (2000) 27, 2, 153-166
  26. Bailey A, Balcombe K., Morrison J, Rapsomanikis G and C Thirtle. Stochastic Biases in Disembodied Technical Change within South African Agriculture. Agrekon (2000) 39, 4,  22-44
  27. Balcombe K, Davidova S and J Morrison. Consumer Behaviour in a Country in Transition with a Strongly Contracting Economy: The Case of Food Consumption in Bulgaria. Journal of Agricultural Economics (1999) 50, 36-47
  28. Balcombe K and J. Davis. The application of cointegration theory in the estimation of the Almost Ideal demand system for food consumption in Bulgaria. Agricultural Economics (1996) 15, 47-60 



  1. Salois, M. J., Tiffin, R. and Balcombe, K. G. Impact of income on nutrient intakes: implications for undernourishment and obesity. Journal of Development Studies (2012) 48 (12) 1716-1730
  2. Fraser, I, Balcombe, K., Rahman, M. and Smith, L. Examining the technical efficiency of rice producers in Bangladesh. Journal of International Development (2007) 19, Issue 1, 1-16
  3. Morrison J and K Balcombe. Bootstrapping Policy Analysis Matrices: Beyond Simple Sensitivity Analysis. Journal of International Development (2002) 14, 459-471
  4. Balcombe K and L Smith.  Refining the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques for Risk Analysis in Project Planning. Journal of Development Studies (1999) 36, 2, 112-134


Other Journal Types

  1. Breeze, T. D., Bailey, A. P., Balcombe, K. G. and Potts, S. G. Costing conservation: an expert appraisal of the pollinator habitat benefits of England's entry level stewardship. Biodiversity and Conservation (2014) 23 (5) 1193-1214
  2. Bennett, R., Kehlbacher, A. and Balcombe, K. A method for the economic valuation of animal welfare benefits using a single welfare score. Animal Welfare (2012) 21 (S1) 125-130
  3. Breeze, T. D., Bailey, A. P., Balcombe, K. G. and Potts, S. G. Pollination services in the UK: how important are honeybees? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment (2011) 142 (3-4) 137-143
  4. K. Balcombe, I Fraser and L. Harris. Consumer Willingness to Pay for In-Flight Service and Comfort Levels: A Choice Experiment. Journal of Air Transport Management (2009) 15, 5, 221-226
  5. Areal, F., Tiffin, R. and Balcombe, K. (2012) Farm technical efficiency under a tradable milk-quota system.  Journal of Dairy Science Volume (2012) 95 Issue: 1, 50-62






Book Chapters and Other Publications (Excluding Working Papers or Reports)


1.      Buckwell, A.E., Davis, J.R., Balcombe, K and S. Davidova (1994) Food Consumption During Economic Transformation. In:  Privatization of Agriculture in New Market Economies: Lessons from Bulgaria,  Klewer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands

2.      Balcombe K. and L Smith (2002) "Refining the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques for Risk Analysis in Project Planning": In:  Cost Benefit Analysis: The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics. Eds: A C Harberger and G P. Jenkins. Reprinted From:   Journal of Development Studies

3.      Gurkan, A. Balcombe K., and A. Prakash (2003), Food import bills: experiences, factors underpinning changes and policy implications for food security of least developed and net food-importing developing countries.  FAO Commodity Market Review 2003-2004 19-38

4.      Jonathan Brooks, Olga Melyukhina, Alastair Bailey and Kelvin Balcombe. (2006) Estimating the Pass-Through of Agricultural Policy Reforms: an Application to Brazilian Commodity Markets. Proceedings from FAO Workshop April 4 and 5, 2006: Governance, Coordination, and Distribution along Commodity Value Chains

5.      Balcombe K. (2009) The Nature and Determinants of Volatility in Agricultural Prices: An Empirical Study from 1962-2008. Proceedings from FAO Workshop. November, 2009